Kevin Ramnarine is a Caribbean energy expert and Attorney-at-Law with over twenty-two years of experience in the oil and gas industry, including serving as Minister of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago from 2011 to 2015. He has led major energy sector reforms and investments, advised regional governments on energy policy, and continues to work as a consultant, speaker and researcher in petroleum and energy law.
Kevin Ramnarine is a Caribbean energy expert and Attorney-at-Law with over twenty-two years of experience in the oil and gas industry, including serving as Minister of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago from 2011 to 2015. He has led major energy sector reforms and investments, advised regional governments on energy policy, and continues to work as a consultant, speaker and researcher in petroleum and energy law.
Kevin Ramnarine is a Caribbean energy expert and Attorney-at-Law with over twenty-two years of experience in the oil and gas industry, including serving as Minister of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago from 2011 to 2015. He has led major energy sector reforms and investments, advised regional governments on energy policy, and continues to work as a consultant, speaker and researcher in petroleum and energy law.
Commentaries
Perspectives on developments in the oil and gas industry, commercial practice, regulatory reform, and legal issues affecting businesses and stakeholders.
The Coming Oil Glut: Implications for Energy Markets
As geopolitical tensions ease, attention shifts back to fundamentals...
THE COMING OIL GLUT
The Iran-US/Israel conflict seems to have been tempered for now. It created an unprecedented supply disruption to the world's oil supply removing 14 million barrels per day out of the global market. No one can predict what will happen tomorrow or next month but for now the oil market has started to adjust prices pre the start of operation Epic Fury. On Feb 27th Brent was $US 71.32. This morning its trading around that same price.
Prior to the war, the consensus was the world was over supplied with oil and that prices would eventually, at sometime in late 2026, touch into the high 50's.
The world of oil and gas changes rapidly when the risk to supply from the Middle East dissipates. The consequences for a "lower for longer" price scenario is "supply destruction" related to high cost / highly leveraged oil producers.
The IEA forecast that supply will rise by 8 million barrels per day in 2027 while demand will only rise by 2 million barrels per day. The year 2027 will be Darwinian.
Falling oil prices also mean falling natural gas, ammonia and methanol prices. What are the consequences?
OPEC Production vs Non-OPEC Growth: The Changing Oil Supply Landscape
The growth of US shale, Canadian oil sands, Mexican production, Brazilian deepwater pre-salt fields, Guyana's Stabroek Block, and Argentina's expansion has become a major factor limiting price increases despite significant Middle East supply disruptions.
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