Kevin Ramnarine is a Caribbean energy expert and Attorney-at-Law with over twenty-two years of experience in the oil and gas industry, including serving as Minister of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago from 2011 to 2015. He has led major energy sector reforms and investments, advised regional governments on energy policy, and continues to work as a consultant, speaker and researcher in petroleum and energy law.
Kevin Ramnarine is a Caribbean energy expert and Attorney-at-Law with over twenty-two years of experience in the oil and gas industry, including serving as Minister of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago from 2011 to 2015. He has led major energy sector reforms and investments, advised regional governments on energy policy, and continues to work as a consultant, speaker and researcher in petroleum and energy law.
Kevin Ramnarine is a Caribbean energy expert and Attorney-at-Law with over twenty-two years of experience in the oil and gas industry, including serving as Minister of Energy of Trinidad and Tobago from 2011 to 2015. He has led major energy sector reforms and investments, advised regional governments on energy policy, and continues to work as a consultant, speaker and researcher in petroleum and energy law.
Commentaries
Perspectives on developments in the oil and gas industry, commercial practice, regulatory reform, and legal issues affecting businesses and stakeholders.
The Historic Cocuina-Manakin Development
Good things take time and patience. As it concerns the development of cross-border natural gas and the development of Dragon there is a lot to unpack. This piece, however, deals mainly with Cocuina-Manakin.
Good things take time and patience. As it concerns the development of cross-border natural gas and the development of Dragon there is a lot to unpack. This piece, however, deals mainly with Cocunia-Manakin.
Should BP take Cocuina-Manakin to first gas, which I estimate would be in 2029, it would represent the first jointly developed production of hydrocarbons from a unitized cross-border field in this part of the world. Cocuina-Manakin was unitized in 2015.
Altogether, the unitized area comprises seven natural gas reservoirs. For purposes of clarity, Cocuina is that aspect of the reservoir complex that is in Venezuelan waters (Venezuela's Block 4) and Manakin is in Trinidad's waters (Block 5B).
Cocuina-Manakin is different from Loran-Manatee in that while Loran-Manatee was unitized in 2010 it was then de-unitized in 2019 to facilitate Shell's development of Manatee (Trinidad side).
Venezuela is now progressing the development of Loran with licenses awarded firstly to Shell and secondly to BP, XRG and UCC. Given that Shell and BP are the main players in Loran and the main shareholders of Atlantic, it is likely that Loran's natural gas will flow to Trinidad. Other development concepts will certainly be more expensive.
In 2024, Venezuela awarded a 20-year E&P license to BP and NGC for the development of Cocuina. The Manakin aspect is under a Production Sharing Contract (Block 5B) which is held by BP and now the NGC.
The 2015 Unitization Treaty agreed that the reserves equity split would be in a ratio of 66% to Manakin and 34% to Cocuina.
It is estimated that at peak production the project could produce 400 million cubic feet per day. This is about 16% of current natural gas production in T&T.
The reserves in Cocuina-Manakin are estimated to be under one trillion cubic feet. While BP has not yet declared FID (Final Investment Decision) on Cocuina-Manakin, the probability that it will happen is now the highest it has ever been.
If it happens, and it is very likely that it will happen, it will help alleviate the long-standing natural gas shortage that has plagued the T&T energy sector.
PROJECT DETAILS
NGC 20%
NGC 20%
COCUINA-MANAKIN TIMELINE
Cocuina discovered by Venezuela's PDVSA.
Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela Delimitation Treaty signed.
BP/Amoco discovers Manakin.
PDVSA awarded Block 4 to Statoil.
Total becomes a non-operating partner in Block 4.
Statoil drills the Cocuina 1X appraisal well.
Framework Treaty on Unitization of Hydrocarbon Reservoirs that Extend across the Delimitation Line signed.
Cocuina-Manakin Unitization Treaty signed.
Block 4 is relinquished and reverts to the Government of Venezuela.
Venezuela awards a 20-year license to BP and NGC for Cocuina.
Repsol exits and sells its 30% stake in Block 5B (Manakin) to BP.
NGC acquires 20% stake in Block 5B (Manakin).
Estimated first gas from the Cocuina-Manakin development.
The author is a Former Energy Minister of Trinidad and Tobago and an Attorney at Law.
He can be reached at kevin.ramnarine@energyandlaw.com .
OPEC Production vs Non-OPEC Growth: The Changing Oil Supply Landscape
The growth of US shale, Canadian oil sands, Mexican production, Brazilian deepwater pre-salt fields, Guyana's Stabroek Block, and Argentina's expansion has become a major factor limiting price increases despite significant Middle East supply disruptions.
Read Full AnalysisThe Coming Oil Glut: Implications for Energy Markets
As geopolitical tensions ease, attention shifts back to fundamentals...
THE COMING OIL GLUT
The Iran-US/Israel conflict seems to have been tempered for now. It created an unprecedented supply disruption to the world's oil supply removing 14 million barrels per day out of the global market. No one can predict what will happen tomorrow or next month but for now the oil market has started to adjust prices pre the start of operation Epic Fury. On Feb 27th Brent was $US 71.32. This morning its trading around that same price.
Prior to the war, the consensus was the world was over supplied with oil and that prices would eventually, at sometime in late 2026, touch into the high 50's.
The world of oil and gas changes rapidly when the risk to supply from the Middle East dissipates. The consequences for a "lower for longer" price scenario is "supply destruction" related to high cost / highly leveraged oil producers.
The IEA forecast that supply will rise by 8 million barrels per day in 2027 while demand will only rise by 2 million barrels per day. The year 2027 will be Darwinian.
Falling oil prices also mean falling natural gas, ammonia and methanol prices. What are the consequences?